Resource Curse or Debt Overhang?

It has been widely believed that resource abundant economies grow less than other economies. In a very influential paper, Sachs and Warner (1997), point out that there is a negative relationship between resource abundance and growth. Two important econometric problems are present in the traditional empirical literature: First, the result might depend on factors that are correlated with primary exports but that have been excluded from the regression. Second, total GDP includes the production in the resource sector that has been declining in the last 30 years. We correct for those issues. Our results indicate that the so called 'Natural Resource Curse' might be related to a debt overhang. In the 70's when commodities' prices were high, natural resource abundant countries used them as collateral for debt. The 80's witnessed an important fall in the prices that drove these countries to debt crises. When we estimate the model taking these into account, we found that the effect of resource abundance disappears.

Tax effects upon oil field development in Venezuela

Important reforms have been made to the oil sector tax code in Venezuela. Given its diversity of oil resources, there was a concern that some resources were not being exploited because of the structure of the tax code. This paper uses traditional theoretical models to review these reforms. Then, a panel of 821 Venezuelan oil fields was used to estimate the effects of the reforms. The major conclusion reached is that reforms based on the development of marginal fields -fields that will not produce because of the tax structure- may overlook the distortions generated by the tax system in non-marginal fields,distortions that can be greater than is the case in marginal fields.Supported by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

The Legacy of the Crisis: Policy Options in a Favorable Environment

The region comprising Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic is on path towards a favorable economic environment, characterized by higher growth in the United States (its main trade partner), lower oil prices, and still low financing costs. This environment represents a window of opportunity for the region to overcome the vulnerabilities inherited from the financial crisis and assure long-term growth. The first legacy of the crisis has been higher public debt, which in turn raised risks of deteriorating credit quality. The second legacy involves higher external flows, which had lead to greater financial complexity and created new channels of contagion. This report identifies risks and lays forward guidelines to mitigate them. In addition, it further illustrates how a deterioration in the external environment can generate lower growth prospects for the region, emphasizing the importance of advancing with the aforementioned reforms. - See more at: https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/6821#sthash.6zIWwBoC.dpu

The Legacy of the Crisis: Policy Options in a Favorable Environment

The region comprising Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic is on path towards a favorable economic environment, characterized by higher growth in the United States (its main trade partner), lower oil prices, and still low financing costs. This environment represents a window of opportunity for the region to overcome the vulnerabilities inherited from the financial crisis and assure long-term growth. The first legacy of the crisis has been higher public debt, which in turn raised risks of deteriorating credit quality. The second legacy involves higher external flows, which had lead to greater financial complexity and created new channels of contagion. This report identifies risks and lays forward guidelines to mitigate them. In addition, it further illustrates how a deterioration in the external environment can generate lower growth prospects for the region, emphasizing the importance of advancing with the aforementioned reforms. - See more at: https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/6821#sthash.6zIWwBoC.dpu

Implications of climate targets on oil production and fiscal revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean

While many governments rely on oil production and exports for fiscal revenues, the global energy transition driven by climate policy and technological change makes future demand and prices uncertain. We propose a framework to explore prospects for oil production, public revenues from oil, and unexploited oil reserves under hundreds of future energy transitions scenarios, following robust decision making principles. We apply it to Latin American and the Caribbean, a developing region that exports half its oil production and faces fiscal constraints. We use the BUEGO (Bottom-Up Economic and Geological Oil field production) model to simulate field development and production decisions globally. We find that oil production in the region over the next 15 years is highly sensitive to the impact of global climate action on oil prices and to the strategies of large global producers, while choices around oil fiscal regimes have limited impact. Also, 66 to 81% of proved, probable and possible reserves will remain unused by 2035. Finally, cumulative fiscal and nonfiscal revenues from oil would be $1.3-2.6 trillion under strong global climate action, compared to$2.7-6.8 trillion if reserves were strongly exploited. Our findings confirm that governments need to diversify their fiscal revenues away from dependency on oil production

La imagen y la narrativa como herramientas para el abordaje psicosocial en escenarios de violencia. Departamento de Norte de Santander

Las problemáticas derivadas del conflicto tienen un impacto profundo tanto en los actores directamente involucrados como en aquellos que son testigos de los eventos. Estas problemáticas abren el campo del análisis, ya que los efectos del conflicto no se limitan al momento en que ocurren, sino que tienen repercusiones a largo plazo en la vida de muchas personas. En el caso de Nelson, se realizó un análisis exhaustivo que reveló cómo su voz logró romper el silencio y construir una verdad sin fronteras. A pesar de haber sido víctima del conflicto armado, Nelson ha luchado valientemente para reconstruir su vida y reintegrarse en su comunidad después de haber sido desplazado, secuestrado y extorsionado. Sin embargo, Nelson también enfrenta desafíos, como el trauma psicológico y el estrés postraumático, que persisten en su vida. El conflicto armado prolongado en Colombia ha dejado secuelas psicosociales en la población, como el estrés postraumático, la ansiedad y la depresión. Las víctimas de desplazamiento forzado, violencia y abuso han experimentado traumas y dificultades para reintegrarse a la sociedad. La violencia vivida ha generado un clima de miedo y desconfianza en la comunidad, dificultando la reconstrucción del tejido social y la reintegración de los desplazados. Un ejemplo claro de esto es la masacre del Salado en Bolívar, donde un número alarmante de personas perdió la vida y otras fueron sometidas a torturas, violaciones, amenazas y exilio. Es crucial analizar tanto el impacto inmediato de la masacre como las repercusiones a largo plazo en la salud mental y emocional de las víctimas y la sociedad en su conjunto. Este análisis debe impulsar esfuerzos continuos para abordar las causas fundamentales del conflicto y fortalecer las instituciones encargadas de garantizar la seguridad y los derechos humanos.The issues arising from conflict have a profound impact both on the actors directly involved and on those who witness the events. These issues open up the field of analysis, as the effects of conflict are not limited to the moment, they occur but have long-term repercussions on the lives of many people. In Nelson's case, an exhaustive analysis was carried out that revealed how his voice managed to break the silence and build a truth without borders. Despite being a victim of the armed conflict, Nelson has fought valiantly to rebuild his life and reintegrate into his community after being displaced, kidnapped, and extorted. However, Nelson also faces challenges, such as psychological trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder, which persist in his life. The prolonged armed conflict in Colombia has left psychosocial sequelae in the population, such as post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression. Victims of forced displacement, violence and abuse have experienced trauma and difficulties in reintegrating into society. The violence experienced has generated a climate of fear and distrust in the community, making it difficult to rebuild the social fabric and reintegrate the displaced. A clear example of this is the Salado massacre in Bolivar, where an alarming number of people lost their lives and others were subjected to torture, rape, threats, and exile. It is crucial to analyze both the immediate impact of the massacre and the long-term repercussions on the mental and emotional health of the victims and society as a whole. This analysis should spur continued efforts to address the root causes of the conflict and strengthen the institutions responsible for ensuring security and human rights

El papel de los recursos naturales en el desarrollo de América Latina

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